Sep 05, 2010
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taken from Saturday 12-27 WCHR (Results in Red):

Ninth Race: Maiden $32,000 claimers going 5 1/2 furlongs, to end this Saturday of racing, and our top selection is JOE CARL (#6), a first timer from the Cerin barn. The works here are a mix of nice, solid 5/8th's drills, amongst some slower works. This is often how Cerin brings a "live" runner to their debut try, and since this barn DOES bet on their runners, we'll watch the early and late money for more signs. Vladmir used Garcia on numerous occasions this past year, with first timers, with much success, and in a weak, wide open group of maiden claimers, this colt certainly deserves a look from us, with a nice price attched as well. DEVIL CAT MD (#3) ran around the racetrack last time out, like a horse in need of a race, while also a bit overmatched. He had been working at the beautiful Pegasus training center in Redmond, Washington, arguably the nicest training facility on the entire west coast, featuring a 5/8th's racetrack over a poly track surface. Today, Smith returns for a reason, and this drop in class, is more than it appears on paper, as this bunch is closer to an $8,000 bunch (see our Appraisals below), thus, the drop is SIGNIFICANT, and a win with the all important first outing, will not surprise one bit. We'll see everyone on Sunday. 

Win Contenders: 2,3,6

X Out Runners:
#1  15-1  Always Trying - His sire, Spinelessjellyfish, like longer sprints, and this runner will need the debut here today.
#5  8-1  Ma I'm Home - Will need the race here today.
#10  30-1  My Ticket To Ride - Needs No. California.

WCHR Claim Appraisals:
1- first timer neg.
2- 10,000
3- 20,000
4- first timer neg.
5- first timer neg.
6- first timer pos.
7- 4,000
8- 5,000
9- first timer neg.
10- 5,000

RAD (Recent Appraisal Data)
Dial Four Peace (7Dec  3rd  mdn32,000)
- Finished third, ahead of 10 horses, and though he's 8-5 here today, let's keep in mind, he finished AHEAD of 4 first timers who were not well meant, while also ahead of two $5,000 runners, and a $2,500, so the bunch BEHIND him was very weak, and that could lead to an overbet runner here today. 
(A WONDERFUL PIECE OF INFORMATION, AS THIS RUNNER FINISHED OFF THE BOARD AS THE 6-5 FAVORITE).

Negative Notes:
Day With Desi - Galloped out very poorly last time, like a horse that certainly needed his last race.

Fair Value Line:
Joe Carl> 8-1
Devil Cat MD> 7-2  (DID INDEED MEET HIS FAIR VALUE PRICE, GOING OFF EXACTLY AT 7-2, RETURNING $94 FOR MEMBERS)

$20 Fair Value Wagers: Win wagers if either, or both, Fair Value prices are met or exceeded.

Top Pick: JOE CARL (#6  12-1  Garcia)  (2ND GOING OFF AT 12-1)

Second Choice: DEVIL CAT MD (#3  5-1  Smith)    (1ST returning $9.40)


 



 

 

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